The final 10 declarations are known although there may have been more and
a number of the original entries balloted out from a run in this race.
A solid race in prospects and on pre-race profile the declarations could
be split into :-
Win & Place Contenders (Alphabetic order) = Concertmaster,
Dubai
Princess, Hucking Harmony
& Swindon Town Flyer
Midfield (4-6th region) = King
Of Dalyan & Kylayne
The Rest (Garbage to midfield) = Baytown
Blaze, Ben, In
Decorum & Southwest Star.
Looking at the previous ten winners of this race 8 started at 9/1 or less
and there have been two longer priced winners although in general the market
finds the right horses to be at Contender/Possibles prices. No favourite
has won since 2001 though when Brian McMahon used to win most of the early
2yo races, especially at Doncaster. His runners were so much further forward
in preparation readiness they would win by clear margins. With Mr McMahon
retired and Bill Turner (his recent winner won STO after a debut 4th at
Musselburgh) going a little easier with debuts with haven't had an old
style whizz-'em-up-merchant in recent seasons. This has meant a couple
of 'shock' winners along with successes for the best horse who is ready
enough.
The 33/1 winner was a draw assisted victory on soft ground for an inferior
horse (he beat the McMahon runner El Coto who is in training at 7yo and
a better horse still than that winner ever was) for trainer David Evans
who is probably the closest we've had to a 'fighting fit on debut in March'
trainer recently. Mr Evans stood in the winner's enclosure looking more
astounded than anyone else that Intellibet One had won and she didn't win
again until her 3yo season off OR 50. The other longer priced winner was
Dario Gee Gee at 14/1 but he was the best horse in the race and that was
the season before Kevin Ryan's reputation with 2yos really took off which
explains the SP.
This year's race looks similar with no trainer represented who will get
a short priced win solely on the strength of readiness of his runner. But
without wet turf going to worry about we shouldn't get a shock winner either.
The best horse who's ready enough will be successful and there ought to
be 1 or 2 who make some longer term impact on the 2yo season.
Which brings us to the four horses in the 'Contender' list above, any of
the other six would have to be better than average 2yos to win and run
above their profile which would show up in on-course vibes and paddock
review. The fact that J. Spencer has been booked for Dubai Princess will
probably mean she's close to favouritism. Jamie Osborne hasn't really built
on his marvellous 2003 season with 2yos but remains an average, competent
handler who can win with the right material. His record with very early
debuts in the period 2003-6 is very mixed with no runner until May last
year, 3 seasons where the debuts were unplaced (including better quality
runners like Milk It Mick & Crocodile Bay) and one year in 2004 with
a win (in a 4 runner race for his best 2yo) and two seconds. So, he isn't
a Jack Berry or McMahon that we trust to have her ripe for the day. But
he also has an expensively purchased entry in the Brocklesby so perhaps
this is one of his get going early seasons.
Dubai Princess has an interesting pedigree. She's the initial
runner for first season sire Dubai Destination who made a good impression
at the sales and received a good quality set of mares. B2yoR rated just
over 50% of his yearlings at 70+ last year which is a pretty rare occurence
so it will be interesting to see how he does. He was very immature on his
own mid-season debut and despite a David Loder full pre-race preparation
his own babyishness lost him that first run beaten by Sheikh Mohammed's
second string - where's Waldenburg now? Anybody? Her dam was relatively
cheap but won all three races at 2yo following a mid-season 5f debut win
with successes in the Supersprint and the Redcar Trophy so was a pretty
good 2yo. Her first foal was the filly Swiss Lake who cost $320k and won
on her 5f debut and also a Listed race as a juvenile. Her trainer was quoted
as saying that 'Swiss Lake was the last thing he thought about every night'
to general amusement and questions about what Mrs Butler thought of that.
Having seen Swiss Lake on debut and just written 'She's lovely' in the
paddock review notes rather than the usual scribblings B2yoR couldn't see
what the problem was - why wouldn't Mr Butler think that way? The later
foals have been moderate at best. Back to Lingfield and the market ought
to be a reasonable guide to whether Dubai Princess is better than ok but
the trainer's overall debut record wouldn't make you think she was a good
thing unless she is at least 'ok'.
Hucking Harmony is covered in the 'Horsewise' section above.
John Best has a much stronger early debut record than Mr Osborne overall
but still only one winner in the period 2003-6. He's also had 4 seconds
in that time and the later winners have all made the first 4 places with
non-winners finishing 5th+. Which suggests similar here but again she would
need to find it a slightly soft race to actually win.
Concertmaster was a relatively cheap buy and his pedigree
doesn't contain a strong hint that he's likely to be better than his price.
His dam cost 26,000 guineas but was a moderate runner and has produced
a worse runner. She's by Petong who is also the sire of Dubai Princess'
dam who cost only 7,800 but was very good indeed. Mr Beckett used to target
early debut wins but has settled back to get them with his better 2yos
from May onwards. He gets the odd early debut win by 'accident' but the
overall profile suggests Concertmaster ought to be a minor winner but probably
not here.
An finally to Swindon Town Flyer who cost a similar amount
to Concertmaster but is likely to be at a longer SP because the trainer
is less well known. Given his trainer's record he's likely to be a minor
winner at least and mostly ready here and his overall profile is a little
stronger than Concertmaster.
Of the others it would need them to be above average early 2yos to figure
prominently off a typical trainer debut. Southwest Star represents
Stan Moore who won the first race of the season last year so warrants a
mention. His winner last year had a hint in her profile that she might
be competitive early (her dam had already produced a good 2yo who had placed
in the Brocklesby) and received some support around 8/1 and at a shorter
SP than the profile suggested. There's nothing in his profile beyond the
Mr Moore link to suggest he'll make that blip a trend.
The draw hasn't tended to make much difference in these early season Lingfield
races, enough nous and plain ability will usually get the job done. Last
year's favourite and runner-up - Fast Freddie - broke well, railed and
led and got picked off after having done a bit too much by a runner with
enough natural professionalism to be within a couple of lengths at halfway.
There's not an obvious front-runner type amongst the contenders and Baytown
Blaze would be a solid bet to lead them dow the hill into the straight
before it all got too much.
It would be interesting to know whether Mystickhill was declared
for this race but got balloted out. Her trainer is on the list as one who
might whizz-one-up, old school, for a debut as part of his developing style
and would have had good prospects in this type of event if she was. She's
also in the Brocklesby along with another TJ Pitt 2yo. The next preview
will cover the prospects for that race and a few thoughts from the outcome
of this one.
In summary an interesting choice between the four contenders and one which
prior to race day you can convince yourself about any one of them by putting
a slightly different emphasis on the currently known profile factors. This
reflects the fact that none have a completely positive profile with trainer
methods being a particular area for uncertainty. In paddock review B2yoR
will be particularly looking at these four to try to rank them for value
at the prices on the day and also for whether they are future winners.
And, as always, checking there hasn't been an unconsidered lurker amongst
the rest of the field.
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Another new season and another new opening format but still one
of the most exciting times of the racing year. The start of the 2yo season
used to be Doncaster, on turf, with the Brocklesby conditions race on Thursday,
the Bawtry seller on Friday and an Auction race (i.e. this race) at the
Saturday Lincoln Meeting. In 2003 Lingfield put a 2yo race on it's Winter
Derby card and became the first race of the season. Then Doncaster closed
for rebuilding before the start of 2006 and the old format was gone. With
Lingfield dropping the 2yo conditions race (which in terms of value-for-money
and awarding good prizes to good performances is a positive thing) and
Doncaster due to re-open later this year there's a chance that 2008 will
see the old format back.
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This is the first of the Race Previews and published on March 25th
when the entries for the Auction race were known. The plan is that the
Previews will be split into two parts with the 'Checkout' section above
which will highlight angles to watch for during the season and a summary
following. At the start of the season with only a few races this might
look similar to the old format. However, if we project ourselves through
to July, and there's 14 races on the day from early afternoon to late evening,
150+ horses declared. That's when the 'Checkout' section and targeted,
shorter, summaries should enable the output to continue.
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Looking through the entries for this race leaves a relatively positive
feeling - there appears to be more competitive, early, 2yos than obvious
garbage amongst the 17. Perhaps, with the anticipation that a new season
brings the ability to be entirely objective and critical is a little less
sharp but the trainers represented gives some support to the upside view.
During the season we'll spend some time analysing the established trainers
(Hannon, Channon, et al) so let's start by taking the theme for this early
summary by looking at the newer, younger & progressing trainers with
entries.
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TJ Pitt started with a licence
last year and made a big impact most notably with failed hurdler Les Arcs
who developed from a 96 rated AW sprinter to a dual Group 1 winner. He
only ran eight 2yos but a return of 3 winners of 5 races (1 at Listed level)
and a near 24% strike rate is a very good start. That strike rate is one
indicator of a trait he showed which was that the 2yos ran when they were
ready to show their ability and compete well. His first 5 runners included
the three winners along with the early placer Fast Freddie (debuted March
23rd, backed to 11/10f and a good second place). B2yoR would take this
as a good sign that the filly Mystickhill
is likely to be a ready type and well prepared. Given that she cost 5,000
guineas and has a 50s rated 2yo profile she doesn't have longer term prospects
but a likely placer off a light weight (and early winner somewhere).
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AB Haynes used to work
for Richard Hannon and rented part of that trainer's facilities to start
his career in 2004. He's moved to his own stables near Bath for the 2007
season. He has run 3 and 7 juveniles in the last two seasons with a single
winner in each year. Nothing startling but worth noting that his winner
each year made their debut by April 2nd and was either his first or second
runner. Both of those winners (STO & 3TO) placed on debut at 12/1 and
16/1 so the slightly unfortunately named Swindon
Town Flyer merits some consideration as a possible winner of some sort.
He has an acceptable earlyish sprint pedigree being by first season sire
Captain Rio out of a heavily built (in typical R. Hannon make-up) racemare
who disappointed in not winning. Mr Haynes was presumably at Hannon's when
the mare (Baltic Breeze) was there and it is typical for trainer's to go
back to purchase yearlings where they know the 'family'. Another on the
'interesting early' list.
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In the 2005 review of trainer's article B2yoR considered the rise
of JS Moore at some length. After
many years of toiling away getting commendable results with cheap and modest
horses he seemed to be getting some better quality and shown he could handle
these horses as well. The 2yo strike rate has gone up to 9% in 2005 and
nearing 15% last year. In 2006 backed by 'Uplands Acquisitions' (Some combination
of Fosroc, Mrs Hay, etc) he moved to the newly refurbished Uplands stables
and (similar to EJ O'Neill) is now presiding over a high class facility
for wealthy backers.
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When working with lesser horses the height of his early aspirations
was to win the 'first worst race of the year' (the AW seller at Wolverhampton
two days after the Brocklesby) with a 2yo he had already run at Doncaster
and he still goes in for this 'win a seller STO' approach. However, he
now has some better horses and in 2005-6 they have competed relatively
well on debut and 6 of the 8 that have made March debuts have been winners.
In those years he has managed a debut winner and several places although
it's worth noting that some have needed many runs to finally win (a trait
from his old status which has persisted).
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He has entered two with Mythical
Fosroc (the most expensive purchase in the field and with a US background)
and the much cheaper Southwest
Star. The second named has an unpromising pedigree for 5f and seems
likely to be of the moderate type. Mythical Fosroc is owned by Fitri Hay
(light green & pink colours) who has provided many of his better runners
in recent seasons including those that have run well in Dubai over the
winter. He debuted later Listed race winner Satulagi
for the same owner (and with a similarly obscure US background) in March
last year to finish third in a similar race. Definitely one to assess for
potential. ['Fosroc' is presumably some product of his backers and his
sheets often carry the word but the advertising hasn't quite worked yet
because B2yoR has no idea what it is. A pint of Fosroc please?, perhaps
you mow the lawn with it].
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JR Best is another trainer
with a progressive profile in terms of numbers of runners and reputation.
However his strike rate with 2yos on turf has remained at a consistent
level and below average. This is in part due to the way he employs two
different strategies with his 2yos. He identifies and runs an 'Early Team'
and he has a record of 10 winners from 17 runners to have made their debut
between March and May. The very earliest debuts often compete well and
show peak form STO. They often do no progress. Hucking
Harmony looks to fit this model well and will probably need to be an
early winner. He has a much more developmental approach with his 2yos that
debut from June onwards. In the period 2003-6 only 2 of the 30 that after
May have been winners during the turf season. The non-winners have included
good horses like Kingsgate Prince and Hurricane Spirit. Think about that
- you could pretty much ignore his 2yos unless they made debuts by May
in that period because they were being set-up for winter AW campaigns or
their 3yo seasons.
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And finally a mention for Hugh Grant's lost brother - RM
Beckett. He's varied his approach as he has got himself established
and if we go back to 2002 he had three debut winners by the end of April
as part of getting his name better known. He's reached a position where
he can go easier now and has become a good 2yo trainer with an above average
strike rate. His pre-May runners are well chosen these days and in 2005-6
the 6 in this category included 5 solid winners plus the disappointing
placer Don Peter. The six included one debut winner and three who made
the first 4. Given that background the cheap Concertmaster
is another with a sound profile to be a minor winner.
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All those interesting early 2yos without even getting to horses from the
more established regulars with possibilities like Thunder
Bay (one of Channon's 'Early Team' types), Mama
Leo (Another Danjet?) & Dubai
Princess (with her interesting pedigree). This Preview will be updated
once the declarations are known and we'll consider what to expect from
the race itself.
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